Discover how risk-neutral probabilities adjust for risk and ensure fair asset pricing in financial markets; explore their ...

Clinical trial transition probabilities, the probability that a drug product moves from one clinical phase to the next, are used to assess the efficiency of drug development and in the valuation of ...

CEOs and CFOs of our portfolio companies often ask us, “How aggressive should we be when we set our budget? We want to grow as fast as possible and invest in our exciting new programs. But if we aim ...

One of the big changes in election coverage that emerged in 2016 was the widespread use of predictions expressed as probabilities. Once the private vice of data geeks, just about everyone in the ...

Probabilities drive decisions. A company that’s 80% certain there’s a viable market for a new product will act very differently from one that’s only 20% certain. Still, probability can be hard to ...

John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their ...